Global Macro

Elevation is the exclusive provider of macroeconomic research by Variant Perception.

Background

Variant Perception was founded by a team of market professionals with decades of combined experience within asset management, proprietary trading and the qualitative/quantitative modeling disciplines.  Regular research commentaries provide a high level of value to any firm that is interested in using macroeconomic research to formulate trading strategies, manage assets or aid decision making.

What distinguishes Variant Perception from other research providers?

Leading indicators are used to give leading insights, providing an advanced read on the business cycle and recessions in real time.

Economists are terrible at predicting recessions – 9 out of 10 economists missed the last four recessions. Economists miss recessions because they focus on lagging indicators, rather than the leading indicators we reference.

Independent, highly data-driven and agnostic. Variant Perception is not wedded to any point of view and follows leading indicators even if the consensus disagrees.

Economists also miss recessions because of the vintage data problem; they reference heavily revised data. The data-driven and forward-looking analysis removes any reliance on data that will later be revised, and Variant Perception’s independence allows it to always take the agnostic viewpoint.

Focused only on outliers and good trade ideas; the blow-ups and potential success stories.

Wall Street research is produced by rote and is too copious. An economist for France will write about France regardless of the importance or relevance of the content.

A style that is crisp and short, utilizing powerful charts. Time is short, and Variant Perception believes the data tells the most powerful story.

No one likes convoluted research or having to sort through many daily emails to find what is important! Variant Perception keeps reports succinct and lets the data tell the story.

Framework

Variant Perception employs a clear and thoughtful research framework, focusing on market themes, strategies and tactics.

Themes: How is the global economy changing at the highest and most fundamental levels? A broad suite of economic data in addition to proprietary indicators informs analyst views about different economies 6 months to 12 months forward, and longer.

Strategies: What is the best strategy to exploit each theme? What asset or product is the best way to express that theme to deliver the highest risk-adjusted return?

Tactics: Looking at shorter-term factors, such as technicals and positioning, to determine the best time to employ this strategy, consolidate an existing position, or temporarily reduce it until conditions become more favorable again.